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Possible reasons and outcomes of the Ukrainian war

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Ever since Russia has invaded Ukraine, one wonders why it could have done so. Of all the years why would have Ukraine been a target for Russia and not any other country. Well, one must realise that Ukraine has been one of the constant targets for Russian incursions. We have seen one major incursion in 2014 when Russia had invaded Crimea and annexed it from Ukraine.

Soon after Putin declared a “military operation” in the Donbas region, Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory and had begun multiple rocket strikes in various parts of Ukraine. Putin had said that Russia was acting in self-defence and if any country intervened against Russia, they would get an “instant” response.

While Putin says the invasion is taking place in “self-defence”, various analysts and geo-strategists feel that there are other reasons to invade Ukraine. They feel that the Russian reason for “self-defence” was on flimsy ground given that they were sponsoring Ukrainian separatists in the region.

Various analysts believe that the number one reason for an invasion could be to improve Putin’s approval rating at home. His popularity has dropped over the years, and he is now in a situation where he could be ousted from power. Despite amending the constitution to declare him president for life, he was immensely unpopular, and his political power was endangered.

Another reason why analysts feel Russia invade Ukraine was to relive the “Soviet Dream”. It is widely believed that since Putin belonged to the KGB, he was having ambitions to integrate Eastern Europe into Russia like it was during the cold war era. However, since the majority of the East European nations joined NATO, Ukraine became an easy target for Russia to invade.

With the invasion of Ukraine, repercussions will be felt across the globe. Due to the invasion, the oil prices have risen to $100 per barrel (which was last seen nearly seven years ago). The stock markets across the globe were not immune from the war as well. In India, Sensex and Nifty 50 fell more than 2000 and 500 points respectively. The Russian stock exchange, MOEX Russia Index, fell by 1187 points. Thursday’s invasion of Ukraine wiped out Russia’s five years’ worth of stock market gains in a matter of a few hours.

While the stock markets and the oil prices have been severe, it would have severe repercussions in the future as well. The regions around East Europe will likely face supply chain issues as well as a shortage of goods. Western Europe would not be immune as well. Russia provides vast quantities of natural gas. With Russian natural gas cut off, the prices natural gas will rise and will also create a shortage.

India is a major importer of urea and other minerals from Ukraine. An invasion like this would certainly harm India’s imports as well.

In addition to imports, an invasion like this would certainly change the military spending of European countries. Since they will not trust Russia on its words, the military spending would go up and introduce higher investments in the defence sector.

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